Its been a while but I seem to recall the forecast being too high.
----- Original Message -----
From: <Doug333@aol.com>
To: <jbausers-l@midrange.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 16, 2002 4:15 PM
Subject: SYS21 - SYS21 -  SKEP Forecasting


> Greg,
> What did Sys 21 forecasting do in this instance?  My guess would be that
it forecasted 0 at a higher ratio than 5 times per 36 months.  Thanks for
the explanation.
> Doug
>
> << Doug
>
> Your example reflects seasonal demand. The S21 solution would pick that
up.
>
> An example of discontinuous demand may be that seen by a repair facility
for
> an expensive part. I have seen examples where in 36 months of demand
> experience, they needed this item 5 times. Due to the nature of the part,
> they would only need 1 at a time. There was no apparent seasonality. The
> largest amount of time between demand instances was 13 months. I was
> thinking that a simplistic approach might be to average the amount of time
> between demand instances to predict when the part might be needed. Given
the
> cost of the part, the client was very reluctant to keep one on the shelf
> just in case. As you might guess, the part also had a long lead-time.
>
> Greg
> >>
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