SYS21 - Re: SYS21 - Re: SYS21 - SKEP Forecasting

["Greg Wieczorek" <wieczog@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Doug

Your example reflects seasonal demand. The S21 solution would pick that up.

An example of discontinuous demand may be that seen by a repair facility for
an expensive part. I have seen examples where in 36 months of demand
experience, they needed this item 5 times. Due to the nature of the part,
they would only need 1 at a time. There was no apparent seasonality. The
largest amount of time between demand instances was 13 months. I was
thinking that a simplistic approach might be to average the amount of time
between demand instances to predict when the part might be needed. Given the
cost of the part, the client was very reluctant to keep one on the shelf
just in case. As you might guess, the part also had a long lead-time.

Greg
----- Original Message -----
From: <Doug333@aol.com>
To: <jbausers-l@midrange.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 16, 2002 12:10 PM
Subject: SYS21 - Re: SYS21 -  SKEP Forecasting


Greg,
If an item, such as christmas trees, had three years of demand history only
in say November and December, where did System 21 forecasting fail?  Or
perhaps you mean something different by discontinuous demand.
Regards,
Doug
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