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Greg, What did Sys 21 forecasting do in this instance? My guess would be that it forecasted 0 at a higher ratio than 5 times per 36 months. Thanks for the explanation. Doug << Doug Your example reflects seasonal demand. The S21 solution would pick that up. An example of discontinuous demand may be that seen by a repair facility for an expensive part. I have seen examples where in 36 months of demand experience, they needed this item 5 times. Due to the nature of the part, they would only need 1 at a time. There was no apparent seasonality. The largest amount of time between demand instances was 13 months. I was thinking that a simplistic approach might be to average the amount of time between demand instances to predict when the part might be needed. Given the cost of the part, the client was very reluctant to keep one on the shelf just in case. As you might guess, the part also had a long lead-time. Greg >>
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