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I don't get this... the only client platform where Java is possibly NOT thriving is Windows. You seem to have a very Windows-centric view of the world. And even on Windows there's plenty of Windows client-side code.
Actually, I thought he was specifically referring to Java APPLETs as an alternative to ActiveX. On that score, he's probably right about them dying out. But they're mostly replaced by Flash, not ActiveX in my experience.
But... I agree... As a full client (as opposed to browser applet) and as a server technology, Java is thriving. I'd even say it's thriving on Windows! It's just using Sun's JVM instead of Microsofts.
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