Re: Predictions for the coming year

In a message dated 97-12-26 03:42:24 EST, you write:

> Subj:  Predictions for the coming year
>  Date:        97-12-26 03:42:24 EST
>  From:        Mr.AS400@ibm.net (Chris Rehm)
>  Sender:      mcsnet!midrange.com!midrange-l-owner@Mcs.Net, owner-midrange-l@
> midrange.com
>  Reply-to:    MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com
>  To:  MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com (Midrange List)
>  
>  Well, I thought I'd climb out on a limb as well:
>  
>  Well, Lou Gerstner will not change jobs. After all, the ink is barely wet
on
>  the press release (November 21 I think) where he agreed to stay at IBM's
>  helm and was given an additional 2 million shares in stock options. 
>  
>  AS/400 sales will climb, but with only a small gain in market share. AS/400
>  shops will increase demand for resources to keep up with mounting Year 2000
>  projects. 
>  IBM will continue to push themselves as a solutions provider, as more and
>  more shops reach deadlines for their Y2K projects, IBM will pick up more
and
>  more business in this area. Fallout will mean that there will be some new
>  converts to AS/400 (although that will certainly not be the only IBM
>  platform Big Blue will push). 
>  
>  Java will stay on track. By the end of the year the AS/400 JVM will have
>  seen enough action for people to start implementing business functions in
>  it. IBM will announce a growing number of joint ventures with Java
solutions
>  vendors and there will be a change in the marketing channels to allow for
>  Java solution vendors, who may have no familiarity with the AS/400 or
S/390,
>  to act as Business Partners (or Affiliates) and work with an existing
>  Partner for the hardware expertise. 
>  
>  eCommerce will drive more change. Businesses will see the advantages of
>  making sales with computers instead of salespeople. Although this will
drive
>  many projects in many languages on many platforms, Java will be the biggest
>  long term winner in this arena, and that will give the AS/400 the best long
>  term shot as a server for eCommerce projects (I think the AS/400 will have
>  the best JVM implementation running). 
>  
>  IBM will continue to develop/improve/implement OS/2. I can't see why IBM
>  would dump current customers, one of whom is a $73 billion dollar company
>  (themself) and send them off to the competition. Also, that would leave IBM
>  shopping for a new OS for their NetworkStations. Even though the product
>  won't be appearing on more retailer shelves, it will still be worth a
>  billion or two to IBM. 
>  
>  Microsoft will finish the year out at a lower stock value than it began.
Not
>  because they will lose market share (they won't), but because the impact of
>  the JVM, high end Unix, and other new products (like the Sun/Intel venture)
>  will indicate a limit to the growth of Microsoft. This will not reduce MS's
>  earnings, but it will reduce analyst's long term view and the stock price
>  will approach a value based on corporate earnings. NT will continue to grow
>  and improve, Windows '98 might even be released.
>  
>  MS vs. the DOJ will have very little impact on their business practices.
>  Gates will again travel to DC and have a lunch with the President, it won't
>  change much but the agreement reached will still not include any remedy for
>  previous actions. DOJ will again be "too little, too late." Perhaps the
>  largest impact from this will be the PR black eye for MS. I say this
because
>  I think the lame "shared code" defense has got to cost them a lot of
respect
>  in technical communities.
>  
>  
>  
>  Chris Rehm
>  Mr.AS400@ibm.net
>  
>  How often can you afford to be unexpectedly out of business?
>  Get an AS/400.
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