Re: 1998 Predictions

In a message dated 97-12-23 19:41:16 EST, you write:

> Subj:  Re: 1998 Predictions
>  Date:        97-12-23 19:41:16 EST
>  From:        DAsmussen@AOL.Com (DAsmussen)
>  Sender:      mcsnet!midrange.com!midrange-l-owner@mcs.net, owner-midrange-l@
> midrange.com
>  Reply-to:    MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com
>  To:  MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com
>  
>  James,
>  
>  In a message dated 97-12-22 08:23:04 EST, you write:
>  
>  > Love ya!  I've done some snipping and adding my 2 cents...BTW my daughter
>  got 
>  > me some GREAT Ethiopian beans which I've slammed into the obligatory 
>  > occupational IV and full valved the sucker!  Gotta love that java. ;-)
>  
>  Figures.  Just like Seattle, you can't find a decent bite to eat but
_GREAT_
>  coffee (ducking!).  Some snips and comments of my own follow:
>  
>  >  DAsmussen wrote:
>  >  
>  >  > Hello All!
>  >  >
>  >  > As usual, these predictions are meant to be fun rather than prescient,
> so
>  >  > don't stake your portfolio on them (regardless of the outcome of last
>  year's
>  >  > flock)!
>  >  >
>  >  > 1.  AS/400 sales will remain flat, due in equal parts to most
companys'
>  focus
>  >  > on the Y2K issue rather than technology enhancements, and IBM's _
> IDIOTIC_
>  >  > pricing decision for V4 which has alienated the group that would have
>  been
>  >  > "first in line" with JAVA solutions for the AS/400.
>  >  
>  >  Like I said, gotta love that java...I'm not sure that 1998 will see a 
> total
>  flat
>  >  line.  There are still too many in denial. It may slow down due to some
>  hauntings
>  >  but IMHO the true hardware flatten will occur in 1999 when their face is
>  pressed
>  >  REAL HARD against the reality checks.
>  <<snip>>
>  
>  Agreed, but 1998 won't be a "banner year" either.
>   
>  >  > 2.  Network station sales will remain flat as well, precluding an
>  announcement
>  >  > from IBM that allows users to run PC-based applications without the
>  expensive
>  >  > NT server requirements.  The hardware has fallen in price, so where is
>  the
>  >  > software?
>  >  
>  >  NC's will sell to the larger companies that want to control costs and
>  availability
>  >  to goofing off on a PC.  AFAIK NT Server is not a requirement today. Oh,
>  you said
>  >  PC-based applications, but you must have meant Win doze based. I stand 
>  >  corrected :).
>  <<snip>>
>  
>  True.  That's why I specified PC applications.  What good is an NC if all 
> you
>  use it for is a color terminal?
>   
>  >  > 3.  Lou G will resign as head of IBM, seeking "new opportunities".  
> Real
>  >  > reason?  He's made all of the management changes he can at IBM, and 
> will 
>  >  > leave to allow the company to "sink or swim" based upon its own
>  technology 
>  >  > and a new leader that will pursue that focus.
>  >  
>  >  There always is the unspoken third outcome...swim poorly...not sinking, 
> no
>  gold
>  >  medals..plain vanilla.
>  <<snip>>
>  
>  IBM cannot afford to swim poorly.  Someone "up there" may have been 
> listening
>  to us on AS/400 advertising lately, but the new technology (and 
> advertisements
>  for it) must keep coming if the anti-IBM bigots are to be kept at bay.  If 
> IBM
>  wants to enjoy the fate of UniSys, just keep pushing the services...
>  
>  >  > 4.  "Native Notes" will fail at inception, because nobody has time to
>  >  > implement it _AND_ Y2K compliant software.  Should have come out with 
> it
>  last
>  >  > year...
>  >  
>  >  Unless it's marketed as a "solution". But I think you're right.
>  
>  Not that they couldn't do this, but most of us would know better.
>  
>  >  > 5.  IBM will announce several hardware platforms to "fill the gaps" in
>  its
>  >  > current product lines, most of which will be met with a "big yawn" due
> to
>  the
>  >  > above stated pre-occupations with Y2K over hardware.
>  >  
>  >  Nitch solutions will still find their place.  If a software products 
> fills
>  a
>  >  company's needs it's real nice to have hardware with a robust Y2K 
> compliant
>  OS >  to run it on. Holey windows Batman!
>  
>  Indeed, but niches won't be enough to ignite the industry.
>  
>  >  > 6.  JAVA/400 will gain a real foothold over other languages/400
because
>  >  > vendors that are already Y2K compliant will focus their efforts there.
>  >  > Vendors that were averse to converting their software to C++ for the
>  (proper)
>  >  > reason that UNIX wasn't as "OPEN" as most would have you believe will
>  begin 
>  >  > to port to JAVA.
>  >  
>  >  That works for the UNIX folks trying to marry up, but for the rest of us
>  that
>  >  already have Y2K compliant RPG/400 code we're looking at broadening a 
>  >  customer
>  >  base to smaller users (read as more support calls, higher cost, lower
>  margins,
>  >  etc.) so from a purely business view point would you rather have a
single
>  >  installation of 200 users of RPG or 10 installations of 20 users of
>  changing 
>  > JAVA, or 40 installations of 5 users of changing JAVA? (I think the 
> keyword
>  here 
>  > is "changing")
>  <<snip>>
>  
>  Ah, but _THAT_ is just the point!  In a world where producing new products 
> is
>  equated with the success or failure of software companies, and there is an
>  overall shortage of developers, JAVA may well "make or break" your company.
>  New talent is generally savvy regarding development tools.  Say company A 
> says
>  "come on in, we're state of the art with ILE RPG and bound modules" (which 
> run
>  only on the AS/400), and company B says "come on in, were using JAVA/400
and
>  are first in line for the Beta release of San Francisco frameworks" (which
>  will run on any platform).  Who do you think the candidate will go for?  
> While
>  JAVA might not be "ready for prime-time" by our standards, SUN is releasing
>  new JDK and JVM modules this year that may "level the playing field".
>  
>  To make a long story short (well, too late for that), the IT challenge for 
> the
>  coming years is recruiting new talent -- _NOT_ maintaining the status quo.
>  Yes, maintenance is going to be a nightmare.  Yes, productivity gains will 
> be
>  miniscule (if even present at all).  Yes, systems will be unstable for a
>  while.  All bad results, but how will your company survive as people leave 
> due
>  to Y2K burn-out and nobody new comes in due to technology stagnation?
>    
>  >  > 7.  The US Justice Department will _FINALLY_ deliver Microsoft its
come-
> 
>  >  > uppance -- have you _seen_ the c###, uh stuff, that MS tried to pull?
>  >  
>  >  The last I heard, a judge got on a PC, moused over to the IE icon, 
> pressed
>  right
>  >  (how apropos) button, selected "delete", got "are you sure", replied
"yes"
> ,
>  and
>  >  concluded: Removal of IE is not as difficult as M$ argued.  The wheels
do
>  grind
>  >  slowly but they sure do grind. :)  :( but then again, the last judge
that
>  said
>  >  that got replaced.)  BTW, what's the going price for a judge now a days?
>  =:-o
>  
>  Not much, given the cases that even make it to court these days ;-)...
>  
>  >  > 8.  OS/2 will finally bite the dust, although undeservedly.  IBM's
>  >  > incompetence, rather than OS/2's relative value, will finish it off.  
> The
>  >  > revenue stream is just too small for the effort required by the
>  manufacturer
>  >  > to "keep it current".
>  >  
>  >  That may very well be true stateside.  The Euro community has AFAIK slam
>  > dunked M$ for OS/2 in 1996.  At least that's the last I heard when I was
a
>  hot and 
>  > heavy OS/2 bigot.
>  
>  I can only hope that you're right.  I _REALLY_ prefer OS/2 (running NT W/S 
> and
>  3.1 at home, but OS/2 at work).  The sad thing is, OS/2 has gotten its "bad
>  rap" in the US due to poorly performing _WINDOWS_ applications.  At my 
> current
>  primary client, we scrapped OS/2 because it couldn't be used for VB
>  development and Windows app's (mainly Visio and AmiPro) crashed repeatedly.
>  Guess what -- Visio and AmiPro crash _MORE_ frequently under Windows than 
> they
>  did under OS/2!!!  To date, Visio and AmiPro are the only application that
>  have managed to crash my NT machine.  When the network crashes on site, 
> guess
>  who still holds a connection to the AS/400 and S/390?  Yep, old CM/2 that
>  "don't need no stinkin' network"!
>  
>  >  > 9.  Y2K will have all of us busy for the next four years, at least.
>  >  
>  >  True.  I'll we've received from our clients is a smiling confidence that
>  they will
>  >  be taken care of in the future as they have in the past, change topic,
>  what's on
>  >  the plate for today.  The ball just gets lobed back to our side of the
>  court.
>  >  The individuals have today to worry about, it's our job to worry about
>  today and
>  >  tomorrow.
>  
>  Indeed.
>  
>  >  > 10.  As with last year, we'll all meet here next year and be equally
as
>  wrong.
>  >  > If we meet last year's averages, that wouldn't be a bad thing, would
it?
> 
>  >  >
>  >  
>  >  Well just between you, me and the fence post last year was great.  Next
>  year will
>  >  be better, and 1999 will be better yet. Why?  Because of a line from a
>  movie 
>  > I heard a long, long time ago: "Lack of planning on your part does not 
>  > consitute an emergancy on my part."  The same one's who have denied 
> reality,
>  > budgets and man
>  >  power requests today are going to do some real hard back peddaling
>  tomorrow. 
>  >  Just make sure that all of your requests are in writting and cc'ed up
the
>  line, '
>  > cause when they are in the corner they just might get ugly! ;-)
>  
>  Point well taken!
>  
>  >  Peace and a joyous holiday season to all.
>  
>  Again, Indeed!
>  
>  Dean Asmussen
>  Enterprise Systems Consulting, Inc.
>  Fuquay-Varina, NC  USA
>  E-Mail:  DAsmussen@aol.com
>  
>  "The difference between a consultant and a contractor?  A consultant's job 
> is
>  to eliminate his/her position -- a contractor's is to perpetuate theirs."
--
>  Me
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