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Buck's absolutely correct - there is no good predictor.  Even certifications 
can be misleading. 

However, several years ago at another employer I developed a test that 
consisted of a short objective section (basically to understand if the 
applicant knew the common op codes and what they did)...20 questions.  

I then followed that with a small programming problem.  I presented the 
applicant with a customer master physical file DDS, a pre-written Display 
Format specification and asked them to write (on paper) an inquiry program that 
used subfiles.  They had up to 2 hours to work on the solution and they could 
ask questions during the exercise.  I wasn't so much interested in whether or 
not they could completed it or even complete it "correctly", but rather, to see 
how they approached the problem, what sorts of questions they asked, and to see 
what coding style they had.  The results were sometimes very creative and 
surprising and always helpful in understanding the applicant's skills.

The "test" was never given in the first interview and that was deliberate.  
They had to get through a first round of interviews before we checked their 
skills.  Letting applicants know they'd need to come back also helped determine 
who was really interested and who wasn't - because sometimes they wouldn't show 
up for the exercise.  

It was really fairly simple to develop - and doing it yourself will make it 
easier for you to administer it, too.

==Kevin


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