>> IMHO, the Cobal/RPG % will fall from 10-15/85-90 to 0-1/?-? by 2001.

2001 ?  What are you smoking Bill ?

Even if this was a typo and you meant 2010 I  would still be doubtful.
Undoubtedly the %age will fall as other languages become more popular, Java in
particualr has enormous potential. Java will stick if IBM hang in, MS fail to
ruin it, and if all the "flavor of the month' junkies keep using it instead of
switching to something newer and sexier.

I think you can make an argument that if people were going to ditch RPG and
COBOL they would have done it while converting for Y2K - and many people do seem
to have switched to package software rather than convert.  The fact that they
have 'fixed' the existing apps indicates that at least a fair percentage of them
intend to continue to use them.

My recent experience is that a number of middle-tier BPs are embarking on
rewrites of their RPG apps in RPG IV which they are engineering to use whatever
user interface works for them (Java, VB, VARPG, Browser with
Perle/Rebol/JavaScript).  I also know of a number of users who are involved in
similar projects.

COBOL and RPG persist because they perform a specific range of tasks very well.
They have stood the onslaught of PL/I, C, C++, Smalltalk, and now Java - before
they disappear a lot of things have to change - like Java learning to print  for
example <grin>

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