Re: layoffs of AS/400 programmers

GREAT feedback Dave,

Thanks !

Chuck

HAVEAJOB@aol.com wrote:

> In a message dated 10/13/98 5:03:44 AM Central Daylight Time, d2ba@xtra.co.nz
> writes:
>
> << m cashing in on the Y2K. Then after that, I'll be working
>  on all the projects that were put on hold to fix the Y2K. Yep
>  Im cashing in & getting out.  >>
>
> There are several factors to address here.  Here goes with some observations:
>
> 1.  The Y2K bug has caused problems in a lot of different
> systems/platforms/industries.  However, I think one could successfully argue
> that the MAJORITY of Y2K related problems across the board has been related to
> IBM mainframes, not midranges.
>
> 2.  The strongest demand for programmers required for Y2K fixes (IT -wide) has
> clearly been in the COBOL arena.  COBOL vs. RPG based systems represent a
> minimal market share (less than 10% at last report) in general for IBM
> Midrange shops.  While the loss of talent has obviously been a problem, it has
> actually been far less severe for AS/400 shops than shops who operate with
> mainframe platforms.  How'd you like to be the VP-IT at a major bank with a
> 100 million lines of code to review?  And 2/3 of your staff is made up of
> $150/hr contractors who are not familiar with your code? And most of the other
> 1/3 is out interviewing because they've found out that their $65K/yr salary is
> WAY below market value?  And you have to deadlines to meet and budgets to
> justify?
>
> 3.  It seems to me that people involved in the midrange family really DO seem
> to be a little sharper and more cognizant of what's happening.  Based on
> personal experience, I think more midrange managers have already addressed the
> problems and shown foresight than many of their non-midrange counterparts.
>
> 4.  Lastly, midrange people tend to be a more conservative bunch.  IE, change
> for the sake of change seems to happen less in AS/400 shops than any other.
> And then, it usually means incremental or supplemental change.  IE, from an
> older AS/400 to a newer model, etc. - certainly not the wholesale changes and
> system scrappings I frequently see in the C/S market.
>
> In summary, will demand taper off?  Probably somewhat.  Will there be a huge
> glut of unemployed programmers?  Not likely.  I think is is clear that future
> OVERALL employment demands will be more driven by economy in general, and
> modified surges up/down will occur because of Y2K, new technology, etc.  I
> think a far more important factor will be the growth of technology, emerging
> economic markets, and the ability to implement into usability for the
> customer.
>
> More 2 cents...
>
> Dave Brown
> Search Professionals, Inc.
> 888-917-1112
> haveajob@aol.com
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