The market turn-around (hh)

[HankHeath <HankHeath@xxxxxxx>]

Buried in an article about new technologies for the NC, I happened upon a
quote:

"People have fought this fear of obsolescence for a long time, and they've
given up ... No matter what kind of PC they buy, it's going to be obsolete in
two years anyway. So they'd rather spend less on the PC and replace it more
often." {Matt Sargent, an analyst at Computer Intelligence, quoted in
February, 1998, Byte on p.66 of article "Disposable PCs," by Tom R. Halfhill]

What struck me is that this is a major turnin the marketplace that will have
impact on a number of markets. And the AS/400 IMHO is right in the middle of
the chaos that is being generated.

Right now, my client base has systems ranging from ancient S/36s and S/38s
running on faith and rubber bands to "new" RISC systems that we are upgrading
to V3R7 with Internet connectivity. Meanwhile, IBM is touting the V4R* system
de jour with Java, and new kernel, symmetric multiprocessing, and graphical
screens. That means the "newest" systems we are working on are ... obsolete.

This is a problem. In every case, my customers are counting on their machines
having a lifetime of anywhere within four to seven years, depending upon their
depreciation schedules. That means, from their perspective, they are
depreciating dead machines. They are victims of some very dangerous mixed
messages.

In other words, from a customer perspective they have already lost their
investment in the machines they are now using. They are stuck with an aging
infrastructure. [Try to sell a machine that you own, or get out of a lease
early.] They have legacy code that they are being told is no longer
competitive. They have a technical investment in people that has to be rebuilt
every six months. [Try to go six months without retraining. I dare you.] They
are losing their best people. 

Being a consultant, I say, "GREAT!," of course. A real opportunity for those
of us who thrive on problems, er, opportunities. But I forsee even more chaos
in the midrange market before things can start to even out.

Agree? Disagree?
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