1998 Predictions -- MIDRANGE-L

Hello All!

As usual, these predictions are meant to be fun rather than prescient, so
don't stake your portfolio on them (regardless of the outcome of last year's
flock)!

1.  AS/400 sales will remain flat, due in equal parts to most companys' focus
on the Y2K issue rather than technology enhancements, and IBM's _IDIOTIC_
pricing decision for V4 which has alienated the group that would have been
"first in line" with JAVA solutions for the AS/400.

2.  Network station sales will remain flat as well, precluding an announcement
from IBM that allows users to run PC-based applications without the expensive
NT server requirements.  The hardware has fallen in price, so where is the
software?

3.  Lou G will resign as head of IBM, seeking "new opportunities".  Real
reason?  He's made all of the management changes he can at IBM, and will leave
to allow the company to "sink or swim" based upon its own technology and a new
leader that will pursue that focus.

4.  "Native Notes" will fail at inception, because nobody has time to
implement it _AND_ Y2K compliant software.  Should have come out with it last
year...

5.  IBM will announce several hardware platforms to "fill the gaps" in its
current product lines, most of which will be met with a "big yawn" due to the
above stated pre-occupations with Y2K over hardware.

6.  JAVA/400 will gain a real foothold over other languages/400 because
vendors that are already Y2K compliant will focus their efforts there.
Vendors that were averse to converting their software to C++ for the (proper)
reason that UNIX wasn't as "OPEN" as most would have you believe will begin to
port to JAVA.

7.  The US Justice Department will _FINALLY_ deliver Microsoft its come-
uppance -- have you _seen_ the c###, uh stuff, that MS tried to pull?

8.  OS/2 will finally bite the dust, although undeservedly.  IBM's
incompetence, rather than OS/2's relative value, will finish it off.  The
revenue stream is just too small for the effort required by the manufacturer
to "keep it current".

9.  Y2K will have all of us busy for the next four years, at least.

10.  As with last year, we'll all meet here next year and be equally as wrong.
If we meet last year's averages, that wouldn't be a bad thing, would it?

Regards!

Dean Asmussen
Enterprise Systems Consulting, Inc.
Fuquay-Varina, NC  USA
E-Mail:  DAsmussen@aol.com

"The saints are the sinners who keep on trying." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
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