• Subject: Re: Midrange Predictions
  • From: DAsmussen <DAsmussen@xxxxxxx>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Dec 1997 20:13:21 EST
  • Organization: AOL (http://www.aol.com)

Darn!  Some of these (not just this note) are kinda' scary!

In a message dated 97-12-08 15:28:50 EST, you write:

> Chris Rehm Asked for it.....
>   Here are some of last years predictions.  Read 'em and weep.
>  
>  At 08:50 PM 1/2/97 -0500, Dean Asmussen wrote:
>  >Chris,
>  >
>  >In a message dated 97-01-02 17:19:10 EST, you write:
>  >
>  >> Hey, anybody care to make a few predictions about what we will see
>  >>  happening in '97? 
>  >>  
>  >>  Since we seem to have a couple of industry notables here, I thought I'd
>  >>  ask.
>  >>  
>  >>  Bob Dies moving up, thin client computer introduction, rapidly evolving
>  >>  network model. These things have certainly changed the course of our
>  >>  industry. But how much? Will AS/400 Internet in a Box machines ship by
the
>  >>  thousands? Where will the manpower to run these systems come from? 
>  >
>  >I look forward to hearing from the "notables" as well.  I'll hazard a few
>  >guesses myself:
>  >
>  >1.  Thin Client will NOT catch on until the price drops.  The darn things
are
>  >as expensive as a low-end PC (Whoa!  Who ever thought that a 486 would be
>  >low-end?  Certainly not Mr. "The Road Ahead" ;-)!) and still need a
monitor
>  >and a keyboard.  Not to mention an NT server to service PC applications.
>  > Until a fully-packaged (monitor AND keyboard) Thin Client drops below
$500
>  >along with native support for the PC applications, we'll not see a
>  >proliferation of them.

No price drop, no proliferation.

>  >2.  Mr. Dies' promotion will not have much effect on the AS/400
>  >community-at-large.  The /400 has gotten where it is based on its own
merits.
>  > If anything, the AS/400's fortunes hinge on the abilities of Bob's
successor
>  >there.  If he is as good at the overall helm as he was at the AS/400
>  >division, Dies cannot afford to promote one IBM platform over another.
>  > Rather, he must choose the best platform for the job and mandate changes
>  >where necessary.  I would expect major enhancements coming forth from THE
>  >OTHER platforms, rather than a preference for the /400.

Perhaps _TOO_ prophetic!  We ended up with depressed AS/400 sales despite
major product enhancements, and the touchy-feeley "e-business" campaign.

>  >3.  Internet-in-a-Box machines will become only as popular as they are
easy
>  >to use and maintain.  Unfortunately, these machines will probably garner
the
>  >same (perhaps EXACTLY the same -- inadequate) support staff of their
>  >NetWare/LanServer predecessors in most organizations new to the AS/400.
>  > Their RPR, MTBF, and support overhead costs will determine their success.

Still haven't taken off, perhaps the availability of free JAVA-Enterprise
under V4 will jump-start the category...

>  >4.  IBM will TOAST CA/400 for Windows and come out with a new, "from 
>  >scratch" version (perhaps wishful thinking?).

Yep, just wishful thinking.

>  >5.  Notes and other Lotus Applications/400 will come out and fail
miserably
>  >at inception.  Version 2 of same will come out 3Q '97 or 1Q '98 with great
>  >success.  This depends largely upon IBM correcting the memory-management
>  >problems inherent in SmartSuite prior to attempting an AS/400
implementation.

Well, at least I got the Notes part close to right!

>  >6.  All of us will have this same discussion next year, and probably be
just
>  >as wrong.

Amen!

Dean Asmussen
Enterprise Systems Consulting, Inc.
Fuquay-Varina, NC  USA
E-Mail:  DAsmussen@aol.com

"As for butter versus margarine, I trust cows more than chemists." -- Joan
Gussow
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