• Subject: Re: Midrange Predictions
  • From: John Earl <johnearl@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Dec 1997 06:33:15 -0800

Chris Rehm Asked for it.....
 Here are some of last years predictions.  Read 'em and weep.

At 08:50 PM 1/2/97 -0500, Dean Asmussen wrote:
>Chris,
>
>In a message dated 97-01-02 17:19:10 EST, you write:
>
>> Hey, anybody care to make a few predictions about what we will see
>>  happening in '97? 
>>  
>>  Since we seem to have a couple of industry notables here, I thought I'd
>>  ask.
>>  
>>  Bob Dies moving up, thin client computer introduction, rapidly evolving
>>  network model. These things have certainly changed the course of our
>>  industry. But how much? Will AS/400 Internet in a Box machines ship by the
>>  thousands? Where will the manpower to run these systems come from? 
>
>I look forward to hearing from the "notables" as well.  I'll hazard a few
>guesses myself:
>
>1.  Thin Client will NOT catch on until the price drops.  The darn things are
>as expensive as a low-end PC (Whoa!  Who ever thought that a 486 would be
>low-end?  Certainly not Mr. "The Road Ahead" ;-)!) and still need a monitor
>and a keyboard.  Not to mention an NT server to service PC applications.
> Until a fully-packaged (monitor AND keyboard) Thin Client drops below $500
>along with native support for the PC applications, we'll not see a
>proliferation of them.
>
>2.  Mr. Dies' promotion will not have much effect on the AS/400
>community-at-large.  The /400 has gotten where it is based on its own merits.
> If anything, the AS/400's fortunes hinge on the abilities of Bob's successor
>there.  If he is as good at the overall helm as he was at the AS/400
>division, Dies cannot afford to promote one IBM platform over another.
> Rather, he must choose the best platform for the job and mandate changes
>where necessary.  I would expect major enhancements coming forth from THE
>OTHER platforms, rather than a preference for the /400.
>
>3.  Internet-in-a-Box machines will become only as popular as they are easy
>to use and maintain.  Unfortunately, these machines will probably garner the
>same (perhaps EXACTLY the same -- inadequate) support staff of their
>NetWare/LanServer predecessors in most organizations new to the AS/400.
> Their RPR, MTBF, and support overhead costs will determine their success.
>
>4.  IBM will TOAST CA/400 for Windows and come out with a new, "from scratch"
>version (perhaps wishful thinking?).
>
>5.  Notes and other Lotus Applications/400 will come out and fail miserably
>at inception.  Version 2 of same will come out 3Q '97 or 1Q '98 with great
>success.  This depends largely upon IBM correcting the memory-management
>problems inherent in SmartSuite prior to attempting an AS/400 implementation.
>
>6.  All of us will have this same discussion next year, and probably be just
>as wrong.
>
>JMHO,
>
>Dean Asmussen
>Enterprise Systems Consulting, Inc.
>Fuquay-Varina, NC  USA
>E-Mail:  DAsmussen@AOL.COM
>
>Happy New Year!
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>kandr
>
>

--

John Earl       Lighthouse Software Inc.
8514 71st NW    Gig Harbor, WA 98335
253-858-7388    johnearl@lns400.com

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