midrange national discussion and jobs going away

i certainly enjoyed todays commentaries on what has happened, what is 
happening, and what may happen to i/t jobs, specifically the mid-range since i 
have been specializing in that market place since 71.

my thoughts are:

if someone had told me cobol/mainframe jobs would still be here almost fifty 
years later, i would have laughed, likewise , more than thirty five years later 
for the mid range boxes. 

i personally think the tailspin for i/t joblessness has been culminated by 
multiple fiascos that have occurred since the turning of the 21st century:

y2k, and the cost of it, 9/11, and the financial/mental burden to our economy, 
then , of course the brilliance of offshore/outsourcing.

after having read todays sets of commentaries, isee  where folks have changed 
career fields, opened their own businesses, taken lesser paying i/t 
positions,etc.

i for one am seeing a small explosion in both the as400 job industry and the 
.net arenas.  whats causing this are basically two things, most i/t shops have 
been utilizing skeleton i/t staffs, and 
a lack of skilled rpg developers(those that have gone to other opptys in life) 
along with baby boomers retiring..

one example is one of my exclusive clients has an opening that i have been 
working on for three
weeks and have only come up with one candidate...its difficult to find as400 
talent with only five/fifteen years of rpg skills who will still be around to 
manage the data center when my clients
retire. in a normal as400 market, i would have filled this job in three 
days...i even welcomed
third party recruiters to assist me and so far they have only come up with one 
candidate for me.
and this isnt "just a job", this person will be groomed for two i/t managerial 
positions

second example is one of my top as400 shops is a dual midrange/and pc net 
developer client
who is going to hire 20.net developers(permanent) this year. i for one, dont 
have a clue where i am going to find that many(and there wont be any 
outsourcing offshore)

and this is a client that i have placed fifteen people(mixture of as400 /.net) 
with since fall of 04. and any good recruiter will tell you if you dont 
continue to find them talent you will lose their business.  

so i for one will tell you, i/t recruiting pros have suffered as well during 
these trying five years.
however,  i see the boom coming again, particularly midrange for talented rpg 
developers, since almost a third of the universities threw out the 400 box and 
went to teaching COBOL, JAVA AND .NET. since most 400 shops werent hiring 
trainees these last three/five years, the new
"trainee" starts at seven years of developer skills

and a lot of shops ignored the skilled rpg developers because they were sitting 
at home looking for a job for two/four years, and now arent "current", (give me 
a break , mr employer) this too will backfire on them as the shortage continues.

so, cheer up all, things are going to  be much brighter for programmers/ 
recruiters, but maybe not so  for the employers who wont be able to find what 
they need/want.

how do i know???? i watched this same exact thing happen in tulsa ok when the 
s/38 started getting marketed there. and the tulsa employers got a real big 
break from big blue or things would have been ten times as bad...during that 
era, 500 letters of intent went into ibm to convert to s38.
unfortunately, big blue had a one year delay on delivery and thats where ibm's 
4300 division and HP ran amok selling their systems instead...if not, could you 
imagine 500 firms in the same town
seeking experience rpg/iii and rpgii talent....it was a salary explosion just 
for the 100 shops who finally did convert over...

trust me, the same will happen again, only this time all over the country due 
to lack of developers

i hope so, cause this old man  still has some good recruiting years left in him.

have a great day

best regards,
frank thomas
dir/mis recruiting
hms company
412-531-7494
hmsco@xxxxxxx
serving the mis industry thirty five years