Fwd: FYI: Pentagon paper predicted new terror

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I am sure there are a lot of scenarios similar to what happened, just as
there were a lot of warnings right on target such as
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2001/09/16/wcia16.xml&;

sSheet=/news/2001/09/16/ixhome.html
but the problem is sorting good predictions out of all the noise of false
leads.

MacWheel99@aol.com (Alister Wm Macintyre) (Al Mac)


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Date: Mon, 17 Sep 2001 15:46:02 -0400
From: "Christopher Weuve" <weuvec@cna.org>
To: nsdmg-news@nsdmg.org
Subject: FYI: Pentagon paper predicted new terror
Sender: nsdmg-news-request@nsdmg.com

[http://kevxml.verizon.net/_1_4MCNURB04MFRWBW__vzn.isp/kevxml?kcfg=upi-
article&sin=200109171240210005131&otmpl=/upi/story.htm&qcat=news&ran=16219&
passqi=&passdate=09/17/2001]

Article Date 09/17/2001

Pentagon paper predicted new terror

By PAMELA HESS

WASHINGTON, Sept. 17 (UPI) -- As Americans wonder in horror what kind of
people could plot and carry out the deaths of some 5,000 people, a Pentagon
report on terrorism published seven years ago, but not released publicly,
could provide the answer.

The report, which was obtained exclusively by United Press International, also
seemed to predict the scope and timing of the attack carried out last Tuesday
in New York and Washington.

"Targets such as the World Trade Center not only provide the requisite
casualties but because of their symbolic nature provide more bang for the
buck. In order to maximize their odds for success, terrorist groups will
likely consider mounting multiple, simultaneous operations with aim of
overtaxing a government's ability to respond, as well as to demonstrate their
professionalism and reach," states "Terror 2000," compiled in 1994 after the
World Trade Center bombing from research and interviews from 41 intelligence,
government and private industry experts, including foreign governments such as
Israel and Russia.

The report was distributed to the Defense Department, State Department, FEMA,
intelligence communities and members of Congress on June 24, 1994, according
to author Marvin Cetron.

At the State Department's request, it "scrubbed" of some details -- including
how to hit the Pentagon or White House by plane using the Washington Monument
as a landmark. It was never released publicly, again at the request of State,
according to Cetron.

"They said, 'You can't handle a crisis before it becomes a crisis. It scares
the hell out of people and they can't do anything. It's like a person with
cancer; some people don't want to know. Others want to know everything so they
can fight it.' I think they took the ostrich approach," Cetron said.

Cetron runs an economic and technological forecasting company in northern
Virginia, producing reports for the U.S. government, 300 Fortune 500 companies
and 17 foreign governments.

Where once most terrorists were politically motivated and sought achievable
ends -- safe passage out of a country, or the release of political prisoners -
- "Terror 2000" predicted a more dangerous form was evolving in the wake of
the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"We appear to be entering an era in which few, if any, restraints will remain.
? Unlike politically motivated terrorists, they do not shrink from mass
murder. ? Mass casualties are not to be shunned ? but sought because they
demonstrate to unbelievers the cataclysmic nature of divine retribution. And
if innocents suffer, God will sort them out."

Ethno-religious terrorists would be motivated by "fierce ethnic and religious
hatreds" bent on the "utter destruction of their chosen enemies."

The 1.5-inch think report was compiled by Cetron and Peter Probst, then with
the Office of the Secretary of Defense and 40 government and private industry
experts after the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. While it seems to
accurately describe the situation that is unfolding now, it makes only passing
mention of prime suspect Osama bin Laden as a specific threat.

"The ethno-terrorist is defending his family and his community, the memory of
his ancestors, his cultural heritage, and the identity of his people, most of
whom have suffered and many of whom have died simply because they were
Armenians, Bosnians, Basques, Irish, Quiche, Ibo or Kurds. His enemies seek
the subjugation or annihilation of his people, if only in his eyes; it is his
sacred to prevent this evil, not only for the sake of the living and future
generations, but out of reverence for the dead."

Cetron asserted that Islamic fundamentalists considered the conflicts in
Bosnia and Kosovo in which Muslims were persecuted by the Yugoslav government,
a Holocaust of their own. The perceived delay by Western countries to
intervene in the Balkans stoked already existing anger with the United States
and European countries.

The report says because this motivation is so strong and death is not to be
feared, ethno-religious terrorists are most likely to kill indiscriminately
and to embrace weapons of mass destruction.

Secular terrorists "have no basic argument with the existing order; they
simply want power within it or concessions from it. Religious terrorists
consider themselves completely outside a system that is to be eradicated and
replaced," states the report.

The report warned that the states of the former Soviet Union -- three of which
border Afghanistan, where bin Laden is believed to reside -- are fertile
grounds for terrorists as the repressive government yoke is off them.
Intelligence communities have done little to penetrate these once
insignificant groups, because the focus of collection was on Warsaw Pact
countries.

"Only now are we beginning to learn their names, histories and agendas.
Because such groups were of little interest to the traditional intelligence
collector, security services know virtually nothing about their ethnic allies
or their depth of support, either on their home turf or in other countries,"
the report states.

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Copyright 2001 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.



==================================
Christopher Weuve [weuvec@cna.org]
Sr. Research Specialist
Center for Naval Analyses
4825 Mark Center Drive
Alexandria, VA 22311
703-824-2406 voice