Re: layoffs of AS/400 programmers

In a message dated 10/13/98 5:03:44 AM Central Daylight Time, d2ba@xtra.co.nz
writes:

<< m cashing in on the Y2K. Then after that, I'll be working
 on all the projects that were put on hold to fix the Y2K. Yep
 Im cashing in & getting out.  >>


There are several factors to address here.  Here goes with some observations:

1.  The Y2K bug has caused problems in a lot of different
systems/platforms/industries.  However, I think one could successfully argue
that the MAJORITY of Y2K related problems across the board has been related to
IBM mainframes, not midranges.

2.  The strongest demand for programmers required for Y2K fixes (IT -wide) has
clearly been in the COBOL arena.  COBOL vs. RPG based systems represent a
minimal market share (less than 10% at last report) in general for IBM
Midrange shops.  While the loss of talent has obviously been a problem, it has
actually been far less severe for AS/400 shops than shops who operate with
mainframe platforms.  How'd you like to be the VP-IT at a major bank with a
100 million lines of code to review?  And 2/3 of your staff is made up of
$150/hr contractors who are not familiar with your code? And most of the other
1/3 is out interviewing because they've found out that their $65K/yr salary is
WAY below market value?  And you have to deadlines to meet and budgets to
justify?

3.  It seems to me that people involved in the midrange family really DO seem
to be a little sharper and more cognizant of what's happening.  Based on
personal experience, I think more midrange managers have already addressed the
problems and shown foresight than many of their non-midrange counterparts.

4.  Lastly, midrange people tend to be a more conservative bunch.  IE, change
for the sake of change seems to happen less in AS/400 shops than any other.
And then, it usually means incremental or supplemental change.  IE, from an
older AS/400 to a newer model, etc. - certainly not the wholesale changes and
system scrappings I frequently see in the C/S market.


In summary, will demand taper off?  Probably somewhat.  Will there be a huge
glut of unemployed programmers?  Not likely.  I think is is clear that future
OVERALL employment demands will be more driven by economy in general, and
modified surges up/down will occur because of Y2K, new technology, etc.  I
think a far more important factor will be the growth of technology, emerging
economic markets, and the ability to implement into usability for the
customer. 

More 2 cents...

Dave Brown
Search Professionals, Inc.
888-917-1112
haveajob@aol.com
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