You're all REALLY missing the point (Was: NOTICE to IBM: You're all missing the point!)

R
Hello All,

Yet another series of diatribes I should know better than to join, however ...

The point is not really loyalty, nor how wonderful the AS/400 is technically, 
but how 
much money can be made from it.  That is what happens when you put a biscuit 
manufacturer in charge of things.

IBM's current view is that they are no longer in the hardware and software 
business.  
They are in the services business.  Hardware and software is merely a tool to 
that end.  
Hence the focus on e-business.

They now hold the same view as the other services groups -- KPMG, Arthur 
Anderson, CSC, 
etc. -- and that view is "What can I sell that will generate the most money?".  
Note: 
that is not the most profit on an individual sale but the most money in the 
long term.

If a customer is sold an AS/400 it is basically a one-time sale.  Sell the 
hardware and 
software and perhaps some services to install it and get it running.  Then 
what?  A few 
phone calls a few times a year "So, Mr Customer, How're things? Anything I can 
help you 
with?"  "No Thanks," the customer replies "We're doing all right!"  An 
occasional 
upgrade?  That situation does not help keep the hordes of 'consultants' 
employed by 
these service organisations in work.  They would have to find NEW customers all 
the 
time.  It is far better to sell customers a Unix or NT solution where you know 
you will 
be back every second week doing something for them.  So none of these 
'consulting' 
outfits is interested in selling a solution that doesn't have a huge amount of 
added 
service possibilities. 

It is also much easier to sell something to a prospect if that prospect has 
been 
conditioned to think that what you are selling is what they want.  That is 
Micros~1 
main claim -- their marketing is so good most people believe that they want 
what 
Micros~1 has.  Imagine yourself as a technical consultant presenting the new 
network/desktop strategy/solution to a large organisation.  If you suggest 
Win2K 
everyone will nod their head and think you know your stuff, if you suggest some 
form of 
*nix for the network and some variant of Win-whatever for the desktop, many 
heads will 
nod and a few will request that you make a technical case for the suggestion.  
If 
however, you suggest Warp Server for e-business as the network solution and 
Macintosh 
systems for the desktop, which is arguably the better solution (excluding 
AS/400s) you 
***WILL*** have to justify it and will end up arguing the case with every man 
and his 
dog who reads a PC magazine trumpeting Win-blows.

So what they do is sell you what you want, not what is good for you.  Wake up 
customers, you are doing yourselves a disservice.

IBM used to care about the customer.  They may have been regarded as the "Evil 
Empire" 
before Gates and his mob of cut-throats usurped that position (although the DOJ 
and the 
anti-trust suits against IBM effectively left a power vacuum that someone would 
fill) 
but it was mostly competitors who felt that way about IBM, not customers.  
That's not 
to say that IBM hasn't been guilty of playing fast and loose with 
pre-announcing 
vapour-ware but generally what they were doing was in the best interests of the 
customer.

One of Thomas Watson Jr.'s beliefs was "IBM should first take care of 
customer's 
profits, then should take care of employee's profits, and if those two are 
taken care 
of then shareholder's  profits will be taken care of automatically."  Can 
anyone tell 
I've recently re-read "Father, Son, and Company"?  The cookie monster should 
take a 
leaf from Watson's book (but no company songs, OK!).  IBM (well, the management 
really) 
only care about the stockholders profits now.  Why?  Because some of the 
largest 
stockholders are IBM's management!  Gerstner wants to retire rich(er).

So what do we need to do to improve the position of the AS/400?  Open source 
isn't 
going to do it.  It doesn't matter how many AS/400 programmers provide 
open-source 
utilities and products.  The AS/400 is not in the same boat as Linux or eveR 
OS/2 
(except that it's sinking -- sounds like time for the "Bailing Programmers" 
exercise).  
Linux will survive as open source because the OS is available and device 
drivers etc 
can be built.  It can also be obtained without recourse to a large corporation. 
 OS/2 
is similar if you currently own it.  Anyone with a C compiler can write device 
drivers 
for new hardware, tools, and applications also even if IBM stop selling it.  
That is 
not the case with the AS/400.  If IBM stop selling or supporting it then it 
will die.  
No amount of work on our part will keep it going.  We cannot support new 
hardware since 
no-one will be manufacturing it.  No-one will run an AS/400 at home just 'cause 
they 
like it.  They will do that with Linux, OS/2, BeOS, Mac (or even the poisonous 
concoction that is Windoze).

The ideal solution is for IBM to do what is right and proper, and stop sleeping 
with 
the enemy.  Piss off AIX, Linux, and Win-whatever.  Concentrate on the good 
aspects of 
what IBM currently have.  The mainframe, AS/400, and OS/2.  Don't just sell the 
customer whatever they think they want, rather sell them what is good for them. 
 But do 
it without arrogance (or least a minimum of arrogance).  Sell the benfits.  
There are 
reasons that Token-ring is better than Ethernet, OS/400 is better than Unix, 
OS/2 is 
better than Win666.  Inform customers about why IBM's solutions are the right 
way, sell 
them that which will improve THEIR bottom line and THAT will improve IBM's 
bottom line.  
Can you imagine OS/390 as a web server?  How many transaction per hour do you 
think 
that can support?  Can an NT or *nix farm compete?  Hah!  The new AS/400's are 
well and 
truly into mainframe territory now.  They've been low-end mainframes for quite 
some 
time but the new 24-way 800's are the fastest commercial machines available.  
Imagine 
those used in e-business?  Don't look for services in the "support a piece of 
junk" 
arena, rather look to adding value to the customer's current business.  Help 
the 
**customer** make more money and they will make you money.

Another solution is to make the AS/400 harder to support.  Not less reliable 
but make 
it require a raft of bodies to manage it.  It seems that Rochester has embarked 
down 
that road with QSHELL, WebSphere, PASE, etc.  All this stuff is much harder 
than it has 
to be.  And it has all been ported to the AS/400 with the minimum amount of 
400-ese.  
None of this stuff looks like it belongs on our box.  It looks like *nix.  
That's great 
for the vendors of *nix applications -- minimal work, new market.  It's great 
for IGS 
and their ilk -- more services.  It's even great for the customer from a very 
narrow 
point of view -- more applications, more commonality.  But it's not great for 
the 
customer from a wider view point because it costs more to support.  That hurts 
the 
customer's profits.

Don't get me wrong, I happen to think that Java is great (it's not going to 
replace 
programming as we know it but will have a significant impact in client-server 
development, e-business, and cross-platform development).  I think WebSphere is 
magic 
-- when it works, but it is a royal pain when it doesn't.  Is the problem in 
the HTTP 
config, or the WebSphere config, or the Java config, or is it just that 
WebSphere 
doesn't feel like playing properly at the moment?  Your guess is as good as 
mine!  I 
have seen enough of WebSphere to know that sometimes it just refuses to 
properly 
compile JSPs, so you retry until it does -- but you waste a lot of time 
checking the 
config and examining your code before you realise that it's just the way 
WebSphere is.  
Great for services 'cause all that investigation is chargable time but it's not 
productive and it certainly isn't right!

Another possibility.  Let's put Win2k on the AS/400 hardware as a native 
operating 
system.  Rumour has it the MickeySoft suggested that to IBM -- I wonder in 
whose 
interest that would be?  It sounds like a good way to kill OS/400 completely.  
The 
hardware stays reliaRle but the OS haemorrhages regularly?  That's good for 
support 
services.  Put it in separate partitions (LPAR) to reduce the damage.  Or 
Rochester 
apply their collective genius and make Win2K reliable in the process of porting 
it.  
Then what?  Rochester becomes a purveyor of hardware only and is bought out by 
uSoft to 
ensure that OS/400 is truly removed as a threat.  Where does that leave us?  
Programming in VB or J++ on AS/400 hardware?  That's neither fun nor to the 
customer's 
benefit.  Where is the inovation from Rochester then?  They have already lost a 
significant number of their best people to the likes of the D.H.Andrews Group.  
And 
those who are left are doing their best to help Micros~1 replace the AS/400.  
We 
already require Win-whatever to manage and configure an AS/400.  How much more 
help 
will Rochester and IBM give to the new Evil Empire?  Will they stop when the 
AS/400 is 
relegated to simply a DB server or Java server?  Or will they actually help 
nail the 
coffin shut and fill in the grave on top of themselves?

IBM are currently rolling out Win2K as the internal platform of choice -- 
desktop, file 
and print serving, and mail.  Despite the fact that is is more expensive and 
less 
reliable than the VM system it is replacing in many spots. Despite the fact 
that it is 
actually cheaper to continue to use OS/2 than buy Win666 and spend REAL money 
(green 
dollars rather than blue dollars) even if the discount is good.  What position 
will IBM 
find itself in when it is totally dependant on software from MickeySoft?  Do 
you really 
think Balmer is a better bet than Gates?  Gates may have been the Emperor but 
Balmer is 
the Dark Lord of the Sith.  He's far more politically astute than Gates.  He'll 
nod to 
the DOJ, say the right things, and make one hand appear to be complying but the 
other 
hand will be squeezing tighter and tighter.  All of us in the IT industry are 
in for a 
very rough time with Darth Vader at the helm.  IBM is one of the few 
organisations with 
the resources to combat that and not only survive but be in a stronger position 
afterwards.

The final, and to my mind best, choice is to stay with the AS/400 but be very 
vocal in 
demanding better marketing.  Realise that you get what you pay for and stop 
opting for 
the cheapest solution.  AS/400 hardware could probably be cheaper but the 
software is 
expensive because (for the most part) it works properly.  It costs money to 
develop 
good quality software.  PC software is cheap because much of it is crap and 
because it 
has a larger market and can amortise costs over a larger user base.  Follow the 
example 
of TeamOS/2.  Be vocal about the benefits of the AS/400, make sure your 
organisations 
realise exactly what it does for them, and how much more expensive it would be 
to 
replace it with something else.  If we can persuade the customer that it is 
better to 
buy quality then IBM will listen because they will have to.  The ground will 
have 
shifted and we'll all be much happier campers.

IBM has some very capable people and Rochester has more than their fair share 
but none 
of that will help unless we can change IBM's perception of what it is we (as 
customers) 
want.  To do that we (the techo's) have to change the customer's (our employers 
and 
others) perception.  We have to be honest and ethical and vociferous.
 
Since I'm in a slagging mood I'd also like to bitch about Dr F.S. as the 
"Father of the 
AS/400".  There were at least a dozen other MAJOR players in the development of 
the 
S/38 and its follow-on.  One thesis does not a daddy make!  I understand his 
contribution and the advantages of picking one person as the focal point, but 
credit 
where credit's due.  And that means more than a couple of cursory sentences in 
a book.  
That particular monicker has been irritating me for quite a while.

This should be a candidate for a "In My Not-So Humble Opinion" piece.

Regards,
Simon Coulter.

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