Some REAL insight into all this... Part II of II

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Hi Folks,

I get this from Stratfor "a global intelligence agency" and prior to the
events of the past week, they have proven to be VERY insightful in a
number of things globally... I get the "freebie" part so it is OK by
them to pass it along. They are at www.stratfor.com

Chuck
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Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2001 17:01:46 -0500 (CDT)
From: <alert@stratfor.com>
To: redalert@stratfor.com
Subject: Islamic Radical Network

____________________________________________________

S T R A T F O R

THE 
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY

____________________________________________________
16 September 2001

COMPLIMENTARY INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT
____________________________________________________

**NOTE**

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____________________________________________________

U.S. Faces Islamic 
Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916

Summary

This week's terrorist attacks 
demonstrate clearly for 
the first time the existence of a multi-national, 
global 
network of Islamic radicals and their sympathizers. The 
United States 
is gearing up for war against an enemy 
that may span half the globe and is 
comprised of 
thousands individuals and different organizations. 

Analysis

The United States has declared war on international 
terrorism. In his weekly 
radio address Sept. 15 U.S. 
President George W. Bush warned Americans to brace 

themselves for "a conflict without battlefields or 
beachheads," and called on 
U.S. military personnel to 
get ready for battle. The president earlier met 
with his 
top security advisors at Camp David in order to hammer 
out a U.S. 
military response to the Sept. 11 terrorist 
attacks on the United States.

Identifying the enemy, however, will be neither simple 
nor straightforward. A 
number of officials including 
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have named 
Saudi 
exile Osama bin Laden as the chief suspect. But evidence 
suggests that 
while his umbrella organization Al-Qaida 
was involved at some point, bin Laden 
himself isn't 
likely the mastermind behind the attacks. The skill and 
scope 
of the operation indicates that more than one base 
of support was necessary. 
 
   
The operational resources required to pull off this 
week's attacks 
indicate the existence of a much larger 
threat, a multi-national radical 
Islamic network with 
operatives and sympathizers all across the globe. Such a 
network likely connects a variety of Islamic radical and 
terrorist groups. 

Understanding this is the key to Washington's 
warfighting strategy. In aiming 
to dismantle the 
infrastructure supporting terrorist groups, the United 
States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying 
members and supporters 
of this global network. Bin Laden 
and Al-Qaida will likely be only the first 
targets.

As the world's most notorious terrorist leader bin Laden 
has 
provided training, logistics and support to a host 
of Islamic radicals 
including Algerian, Egyptian, 
Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and 
Yemeni 
nationals. His training camps in Afghanistan provide a 
basis for 
learning the tools and techniques of 
terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be 
thought of as the 
president of a university devoted to the education of 
radical Islamic terrorists. 

But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of 
more 
terrorist attacks against the United States, since logic 
dictates that 
Al-Qaida could not have been the only 
organization involved in the Sept. 11 
strikes.

Like any business venture, no one group would be able to 
supply all 
the resources. Instead, various aspects of 
the operation would be farmed out 
to different groups or 
individuals within the network. Al-Qaida as an umbrella 

organization is but one group within a network of 
radical Islamic 
organizations that stretches from Cairo 
to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers. 

The sheer scope and skill with which the operations were 
carried out required 
several levels of planning, 
organizing, intelligence and operational 
experience and 
capabilities. 

The masterminds behind this week's operation 
began 
forming their attack plan years ago. They then needed to 
locate funding 
and likely turned to sympathetic 
financiers who could arrange for aid from 
even more 
sympathetic donors. The planners also set up separate 
departments 
with directors to handle 
counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic 
covers and passports, finances and recruitment. At the 
same time, security is 
maintained by isolating each 
department from the others so that the 
organization is 
not compromised.

Each division required support from a 
variety of 
sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network could 
provide. In 
fact, to say bin Laden himself masterminded 
the assault overlooks some 
important limitations under 
which he is currently operating. 

For one he is 
trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in 
what he can do. The Saudi dissident 
cannot even make 
phone calls and has had to resort to courier services in 
order to communicate with his associates. 

For years, the United States 
tracked communications in 
country and listened in on his phone conversations 
made 
over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network. 
Directing an operation 
like the one that took place 
Sept. 11 would require flexible management that 
could 
adapt to a variety of situations, necessitating quick 
and reliable 
means of communication.

Even financing the operation would have required 
resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's ability. 
According to U.S. officials 
quoted by United Press 
International, Washington had bin Laden's financial and 

operational networks almost "completely mapped" out in 
detail by mid-1997. 

This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at most 
severely limited and 
at least under constant 
surveillance. It would have been impossible for his 
bankers to wire money to operatives in the United States 
without tipping off 
U.S. intelligence agencies. Clearly, 
bin Laden could not have financed this 
week's operation 
alone. 

Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and 
perhaps 
even recruits. But there are several other organizations 
that could 
also be tapped for intelligence, logistical 
assistance, operational planning 
and financing. For 
example, the Egyptian group al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya 
orchestrated the bombing of the World Trade Center in 
1993 and has experience 
operating in the United States. 
It also has links to Egyptian intelligence and 
business 
leaders who travel frequently and could provide 
information on 
airline security standards in the United 
States.

Another example can be seen 
in the bombing of the USS 
Cole in Yemen last October. The group blamed for 
that 
attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there is no 
evidence that it 
acted directly under his command. That 
group, like the recent attackers, 
employed crude tactics 
and weapons in a sophisticated manner to cause massive 
damage. It managed to severely damage a U.S. destroyer, 
not to mention the 
U.S. sense of dominance, with a 
rubber inflatable boat.

Indeed, there are 
hundreds of radical Islamic 
organizations operating around the world, all 
individual 
and distinct from each other, that could have provided 
support. 
Although in the past a majority focused on 
local issues and did not operate 
beyond their national 
borders, a new picture is now emerging. 

This picture 
is one of a global network tying all 
Islamic groups together in a loose 
coalition. Like the 
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised 
of 
organizations and sympathetic individuals from all 
over the Muslim world, 
including financiers and aid 
donors, government officials and diplomats, 
former and 
possibly current military officers, intelligence agents, 
former 
and current guerrilla and militant groups, 
information technology specialists 
and operational 
commanders and their lieutenants. 

It is then quite possible 
that the group that 
masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised of 
a collection of individuals from several different 
countries. Indeed, the 
FBI's list of suspects reads like 
a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar 
University 
in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the attack came 
from 
countries across the Middle East, including 
possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi 
Arabia and the United 
Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all 
together. 

The United States thinks it is going to war with bin 
Laden, 
Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly 
responsible for this week's attacks. 
But taking down the 
infrastructure supporting these groups will require the 
U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global 
network. That, like 
dismantling the drug trafficking 
networks in Latin America, West Africa or 
Europe, will 
be a monumental task.

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