Re: User group losses (was: Boise Idaho User Group?)

On Mon, 3 Jun 2002, Buck Calabro wrote:

>
> If I were to try to make such a rating, would I weigh all user groups
> equally?  For instance, is the renowned Toronto User Group (TUG) to carry
> the same weight as the Schenectady group with 4 members (I made that up), no
> newsletter and irregular meetings?  Do I weigh a user group by it's
>  (snip)

Buck,

you raise some interesting questions.  I don't know that there is a
definative answer, but let me throw a few thoughts and ideas out there and
let's see where this takes us.

Like no two cities, states, provinces, countries are alike, no two user
groups are alike.  They are in many ways unique.

I suppose I could if I wanted to, comprise a index of some sort that would
allow me to have some basis of arbitrary comparison, but it would be
arbitrary and not necessarily a good statistic of what's going on at
ground zero.  I suppose this index would include stuff like: regional GDP,
number of installed systems, number of members, number of active
attendees, some index of how much/little IBM supports the UG, I could
throw in a variable as to if they have a tech conference, but frankly,
I'ld be really hardpressed to find a equal index to compareTUG and say
KSSA(Louisville KY).  OK, there's a difference in attendees, number of
boardmembers....TUG has a lab in their back yard to draw from....not many
do and this undoubtly helps thier success.  Then how would I compare TUG
with the UG that's run by Jan Cfka in the Czech republic?  Do I have to
create another Xn to account for continent, or perhaps former eastern
block...perhaps even on that tells me how good the kolace is there this
time of year? :)

How should I quantify the UG in Iceland, where there's more 400/capita
than anywhere else?  Or Italy which I believe has ALOT of machines?  What
about the 8 or 9 400 clubs in France?

How do I take into account the differences in attitude towards cash flow
and how the business portions are run between something like TUG and say
LISUG or Delaware Valley?  And not everyone has a good UG periodical like
TUG does....not even COMMON (ANY variety!).

I don't think Booth will challenge me on this historical point:  The
framers of the US constitution faced a simular problem when constructing
our legistlative bodies.  Is Vermont more important than Virginia?  Is ANY
state more important than the other, and our equivalency would be is ANY
UG more important than another?

I think the answer is and has to be, no.

They do represent different concentration densities of installations and I
suppose I could come up with some kind of index that given the
installation density what kind of a critical mass I should expect for a
user group...but then, what of cities like Las Vegas that don't have a UG,
or Beiging?

So, what happens when a UG folds in Sacramento, but TUG or better yet
Ocean is still in business?  It means that they have the critical mass and
reserves to continue viability...  Uh, did anyone attend COMMON Europe and
have any idea what the numbers were there for this spring?  UH, we're
talking for ALL OF EUROPE.....

Frankly, I'm most familier with the North American UG's.  I'm aware of
UG's in Asia, Europe, Africa, Pacific basin, South America, and
periodically I'm in contact with some of thier leadership folks.... but I'm
not a company with a market cap of 133.7Billion USD, I can't just go on
holiday and make the rounds....as much as I would really like to.

Another point mentioned is that technology and priorities are changing.
Via modalities like Midrange-l, etc., we're able to have a more ready
access to information...also the web has provided is with resources never
before available.  There are those that would say that there will come a
time when there will be no more need for UG's.  I think this is true, in
the historical/traditional sense, but keep in mind that computer based
training has never been and currently is still not, a substitution for
class room learning.  And, humans being social creatures, by their nature
find the need to freely associate with people on a common venu/subject.


I would see that net conferencing would perhaps be a good option to allow
folks to view/attend a meeting from a remote location...and Im still
stuned why COMMON (US) and the iSeries Nation haven't moved further in
real time net conferencing or net broadcast of sessions....  But, I am at
a loss to see how your statement at LPAR has any relevance here...


Further, yes,  many of us would prefer to spend our time with other
priorities.  The biggest being family.  The kids aren't getting any
younger.  And there is evidence that this is having a impact on UG
membership...and leadership.

Statements have been made that the UG organizational structure in alot of
venus is the same folks and that no one is interested in taking over.
This is very true.  And when those folks decide they've had enough, that
UG will close.  What that says is that to the people in this market,
OS/400 and IBM haven't presented themselves to be of substancial enough
gravity to warrant the extra time/resources to maintain a UG.  This is a
normal and almost quantifiable phenomenon.

UG meeting structures and contents:  Frankly, the range from one group I
know of that meets monthly, has a open bar and mandates that there be no
technical discussion until most of the folks have had their third drink.
Then there's the UG that basically folded because thier president was a
member of MADD and she mandated that the meetings be dry (no alcholic
beverages).  Most however deviate from those extremes and tend to follow
more of the traditional evening/afternoon get together with a technical
presentation of some sort.

Technologies are changing.  Folks that were traditional OS/400 folks are
now finding they need to learn things like windows, unix, web stuff, net,
communications, VB, C#, xml....and this cuts into the free time that they
used to have to goto UG meetings...so they don't go unless there's REALLY
A HOT TOPIC coming down the line...and frankly, alot have been really hard
pressed to justify finding a really hot topic to stop the presses about,
when you compare it with all the other home/family/work/misc issues vying
for the 24 hours called a day.

Classic example:  right now I'm in the middle of a unix conversion from
os/400.  Frankly, the client couldn't get IBM to get them a viable and
cost effective software package to run on os/400, but IBM could find all
kinds of stuff that ran on AIX...so, guess what...  And, I, like the rest
of the 400 folks in this shoppe, need to know more AIX and Oracle than I
need to know about some damn 890 that I'll never need to buy....I will not
be attending the week portion of COMMON in Denver this fall because I need
to be at the IBM unix/aix/linux tech conf in Dallas, which is the same
week as COMMON (someone REALLY knows how to plan conflicts of schedules
here).

Then there's the people that are being told: "You're leaving the 400 and
going to (unix, SQL server, environment du jour).  They're off the 400 and
MANY of these folks have historically been some of the most solid pillars
in the UG community and they're now finding they have to do some very
serious treading of water to keep thier jobs.  IBM is finally admiting it,
generally privately, but they're losing marketshare in OS/400 related
systems in N.America....and I think that also extends to europe and
Australasia...if my UG contacts on those continents have the same kind of
data we see here.  With the decline in marketshare goes the decline in
people attending UG meetings...they're now attending
linux/unix/windows/SQL UG's....and why not...they need to develop the
contacts in that new arena that they already have in the small world of
the midrange'ers....so, what you're seeing is a shift in UG interest in
some degrees and venus from os/400 to linux/unix/windows/oracle/etc.

Finally, alot of UG's are becoming very hard pressed to find topics that
will bring out the larger crowds.  The fragmentation of the environment
has also fragmented the interest structures to where you used to be able
to find a topic that the 50 or so members would all find
interesting....but now, you may find that only 20 of them are intersted,
and the other 30 would rather have a topic on java....and this kind of
numbers game can erode budgets alot!

Now, I've ranted on a bit.  I think I've hit a bunch of your points, but
may have missed a few.  Hopefully any followup would be a bit more laconic
than this one....:)

I try to treat each UG as a unique entity and not compare apples and
oranges more than I have to.  Alot of times, it just doesn't fit.

UG's still remain a very viable source of commeraderie and techno-social
structure.  Support your local UG...you'll be glad you did.

D. Rima
President, Washington (DC) Area Midrange User's Group
Founder and Past Chair, COMMON Local User Group Committee