Re: 1998 Predictions

In a message dated 97-12-22 08:23:04 EST, you write:

> Subj:  Re: 1998 Predictions
>  Date:        97-12-22 08:23:04 EST
>  From:        qappdsn@ibm.net (James W. Kilgore)
>  Sender:      mcsnet!midrange.com!midrange-l-owner@Mcs.Net, owner-midrange-l@
> midrange.com
>  Reply-to:    MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com
>  To:  MIDRANGE-L@midrange.com
>  
>  Dean,
>  
>  Love ya!  I've done some snipping and adding my 2 cents...BTW my daughter 
> got me
>  some GREAT Ethiopian beans which I've slammed into the obligatory 
> occupational IV and full valved the sucker!  Gotta love that java. ;-)
>  
>  DAsmussen wrote:
>  
>  > Hello All!
>  >
>  > As usual, these predictions are meant to be fun rather than prescient, so
>  > don't stake your portfolio on them (regardless of the outcome of last
year's
>  > flock)!
>  >
>  > 1.  AS/400 sales will remain flat, due in equal parts to most companys'
focus
>  > on the Y2K issue rather than technology enhancements, and IBM's _IDIOTIC_
>  > pricing decision for V4 which has alienated the group that would have
been
>  > "first in line" with JAVA solutions for the AS/400.
>  
>  Like I said, gotta love that java...I'm not sure that 1998 will see a total
flat
>  line.  There are still too many in denial. It may slow down due to some
hauntings
>  but IMHO the true hardware flatten will occur in 1999 when their face is
pressed
>  REAL HARD against the reality checks.  Say that a company has a really good
>  customer who they gave 120 day terms to books a sale in Sept. 1999 and
shows 
> up on credit hold for being 100 years delinquent.  (And the poor IS manager
is 
> going to be sitting there going: "Remember when...." and the big guy is
going to 
> say " I don't care about then, I want this fixed NOW!!"..so much for Labor
Day 
> weekend with the family)
>  
>  > 2.  Network station sales will remain flat as well, precluding an
announcement
>  > from IBM that allows users to run PC-based applications without the
expensive
>  > NT server requirements.  The hardware has fallen in price, so where is
the
>  > software?
>  
>  NC's will sell to the larger companies that want to control costs and
availability
>  to goofing off on a PC.  AFAIK NT Server is not a requirement today. Oh,
you 
> said
>  PC-based applications, but you must have meant Win doze based. I stand 
> corrected. :)Even the small companies I've worked with we reformat any PC
hard 
> drives and partition it to only hold the minimum for a connection.  If
someone is 
> doing company related work, it's on a shared (secured by group) server or
there is 
> no space left on a user machine to store it.  If someone wants to do
resumes/
> games,  go home and do it.  Remember, IBM's real customers have thousands, 
> tens of thousands or maybe even hundreds of thousands of users.  A site with
only 
> hundreds of users they leave up to the "partners" to handle.
>  
>  
>  > 3.  Lou G will resign as head of IBM, seeking "new opportunities".  Real
>  > reason?  He's made all of the management changes he can at IBM, and will 
> leave
>  > to allow the company to "sink or swim" based upon its own technology and
a 
> new
>  > leader that will pursue that focus.
>  
>  There always is the unspoken third outcome...swim poorly...not sinking, no 
> gold
>  medals..plain vanilla.
>  
>  >
>  >
>  > 4.  "Native Notes" will fail at inception, because nobody has time to
>  > implement it _AND_ Y2K compliant software.  Should have come out with it 
> last
>  > year...
>  
>  Unless it's marketed as a "solution". But I think you're right.
>  
>  > 5.  IBM will announce several hardware platforms to "fill the gaps" in
its
>  > current product lines, most of which will be met with a "big yawn" due to
> the
>  > above stated pre-occupations with Y2K over hardware.
>  
>  Nitch solutions will still find their place.  If a software products fills
a
>  company's needs it's real nice to have hardware with a robust Y2K compliant
> OS to
>  run it on. Holey windows Batman!
>  
>  > 6.  JAVA/400 will gain a real foothold over other languages/400 because
>  > vendors that are already Y2K compliant will focus their efforts there.
>  > Vendors that were averse to converting their software to C++ for the (
> proper)
>  > reason that UNIX wasn't as "OPEN" as most would have you believe will 
> begin to
>  > port to JAVA.
>  
>  That works for the UNIX folks trying to marry up, but for the rest of us 
> that
>  already have Y2K compliant RPG/400 code we're looking at broadening a 
> customer
>  base to smaller users (read as more support calls, higher cost, lower 
> margins,
>  etc.) so from a purely business view point would you rather have a single
>  installation of 200 users of RPG or 10 installations of 20 users of
changing 
> JAVA,
>  or 40 installations of 5 users of changing JAVA? (I think the keyword here 
> is
>  "changing") How many sales per year do you need for the 200 user shop vs
the 
> 5
>  user shop at competitive prices to break even and what's your cost to 
> support that
>  number of installations?  For us, at this time, JAVA is an intellectual 
> hobby and
>  not a livelihood.  It's sort of like being in school to learn it, we even 
> try to
>  replicate existing applications to find the holes.  But for front line
>  applications it's not ready for prime time.  It is good for system 
> management
>  software and application development software. Ya see, we don't sell 
> software to
>  programmers, we sell to companies that need a Payroll application.  In time
> we
>  believe that JAVA might (repeat might) do what UNIX/C was meant to, but we'
> re not
>  about to throw another $x,000,000 into it until we have that warm and fuzzy
>  feeling.
>  
>  > 7.  The US Justice Department will _FINALLY_ deliver Microsoft its come-
>  > uppance -- have you _seen_ the c###, uh stuff, that MS tried to pull?
>  
>  The last I heard, a judge got on a PC, moused over to the IE icon, pressed 
> right
>  (how apropos) button, selected "delete", got "are you sure", replied "yes",
> and
>  concluded: Removal of IE is not as difficult as M$ argued.  The wheels do 
> grind
>  slowly but they sure do grind. :)  :( but then again, the last judge that 
> said
>  that got replaced.)  BTW, what's the going price for a judge now a days?
=:-
> o
>  
>  >
>  >
>  > 8.  OS/2 will finally bite the dust, although undeservedly.  IBM's
>  > incompetence, rather than OS/2's relative value, will finish it off.  The
>  > revenue stream is just too small for the effort required by the 
> manufacturer
>  > to "keep it current".
>  
>  That may very well be true stateside.  The Euro community has AFAIK slam 
> dunked M$
>  for OS/2 in 1996.  At least that's the last I heard when I was a hot and 
> heavy
>  OS/2 bigot.
>  
>  >
>  >
>  > 9.  Y2K will have all of us busy for the next four years, at least.
>  
>  True.  I'll we've received from our clients is a smiling confidence that 
> they will
>  be taken care of in the future as they have in the past, change topic,
what'
> s on
>  the plate for today.  The ball just gets lobed back to our side of the
court.
>   The
>  individuals have today to worry about, it's our job to worry about today
and
>  tomorrow.
>  
>  >
>  >
>  > 10.  As with last year, we'll all meet here next year and be equally as 
> wrong.
>  > If we meet last year's averages, that wouldn't be a bad thing, would it?
>  >
>  
>  Well just between you, me and the fence post last year was great.  Next
year 
> will
>  be better, and 1999 will be better yet. Why?  Because of a line from a
movie 
> I
>  heard a long, long time ago: "Lack of planning on your part does not 
> consitute an
>  emergancy on my part."  The same one's who have denied reality, budgets and
> man
>  power requests today are going to do some real hard back peddaling
tomorrow. 
>  Just
>  make sure that all of your requests are in writting and cc'ed up the line,
'cause
>  when they are in the corner they just might get ugly! ;-)
>  
>  Peace and a joyous holiday season to all.
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