AS/400- Y2K Costs Much Higher: Midrange Systems Magazine, Aug.

This is going to get a bit provocative and is addressed to the 70% exposed.
 There  are reasons.
                 What are they? 
                 How  can we over come them?

The AS/400 has all the capabilities of pulling through 2000.  What its'
future will be depends much n the actions the AS/400 owners take to
replace, fix or repair their systems.

IBM, AS/400 Division,  was more then gracious, with their recent offer for
model 40S & 50S  Y2K packages.  They pointed out in a recent teleconference
that 70% or more of the 400s have not started their Year/2000 conversion
efforts yet. [I wonder why that number is up from the Jan 97 numbers?]  If
you don't, at least,  know how big or complex it is  - how can you say when
to start for a timely finish?  I'll not go through the rest of the "scarey
statistics"  presented.

 Then came the new product announcements and no more Y2K saving  features -
other than they are Y2K ready products hardware and software.  The new
models are faster can handle E-Commerce. 

>From  what I see - The AS/400 has the lowest cost  per LoC to fix! The
applications are yours and the system has been fixed to Year/2000 ready.
Many tools a strategies have been made available by  the manufacturer and
vendors..  There is a fix for *your* situation and a plan for  on-time
survival (full or partial)  then:

        What are We waiting for?
        What is  the Problem  you see or  don't see?
        What have you done to  begin or solve your Year/2000 challanges?
        Are you on Target to avoid more  complex iterations?

As for  prices going  up-
 those that delay contribute to a supply and demand market.  Just a thought
 but increased risks of success diminishes as time grows shorter as will
resources. 

Who controls the  market?  The risks?  Relative time?

There is always the option to do this yourself, completely internally
without outside help or Y2K tools. Maybe that is reinventing the wheel, but
if it is cost effective and on time-who cares. [I can't  see this as being
the case for most to work without some tools assist. I've been worng before]
 Again the question - What are you waiting for?  Why is it that more than
70%  have not started?

*Rant Mode Off

At the risk of being  buried with mail(hum)  I'd like to hear (privately or
publicly)  where you are at ... and  some of the answers to the  question
posed above.

CVTTOY2K *ALL *IMMED

Glenn
___________________________________________________
Glenn Ericson,          Phoenix Consulting                      
P O Box 701164   East Elmhurst NY 11370-3164 USA                            
Ph. 718 898 9805         Fx. 718 446 1150
____________________________________________________
>
> 
>At 10:18 AM 8/26/97 +0000, you wrote:
>Date: Tue, 26 Aug 1997 01:31:25 -0400
>From: P Ghosh 
>Subject: Sighting: Y2K Costs Much Higher: Midrange Systems Magazine, Aug.
>
>Midrange Systems magazine, August 15, 1997 published a new study which
>finds Year 2000 problem may cost trillions. Some portion of the news
>article is as follows:
>
>'..... another firm now says this (Gartner Group's estimate of $400 -
>$600 Billion worldwide) is too low. Technology Management Reports, a San
>Diego-based research firm, projects that the overall worldwide economic
>impact of dealing with computer-related Year 2000 problems will exceed
>$2 trillion.
>About 25 percent of this estimate consists of the costs of litigation,
>says Michael Erbschloe, research director at Technology Management
>Reports....... This projection also includes the cost of rewriting
>existing programs, the acquisition and installation of replacement
>systems, and productivity lost due to system downtime and business
>interruption caused by failing systems not in Year 2000 compliance.
>...."Lloyds of London was told that they should anticipate paying
>upwards of $800 to $1 trillion in litigation expenses...." Erbschloe
>reports. Already some insurance companies are adding exclusionary
>clauses ....
>Another factor driving worldwide costs up is a sharp rise in
>programmers' rates as the year 2000 draws closer. Technology Management
>Reports estimates that it is now costing about $1.30 per line of code to
>bring programs into compliance. (From the 1st half of 1998 it is
>expected to rise from $1.75 to $4.00 in the 1st half of 2000). Year 2000
>consulting fees are climbing to about $1500 per day. By the second half
>of 1998, top-notch consultants will be drawing over $2000 per day and
>during 1999, consulting fees will reach about $2500 per day, Technology
>Management Reports predicts.
>...... The AS/400 will come shining through this crisis, and may see a
>"a boom time" for sales by 1999, Erbschloe points out. ........'
>(excerpts from Midrange Systems magazine, August 15, 1997 issue, by
>Joseph McKendrick).
>
>Regards,
>
>Paul Ghosh

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